How Good an Estimator Are You?
Chapter 2 of Software Estimation: Demystifying the Black Art opens with a quiz designed to test your estimation abilities. It's an interesting exercise, so I thought everyone might like to give it a shot.
- For each question, fill in the upper and lower bounds so that you have a 90 percent chance of including the correct value.
- Don't make your ranges too narrow or too wide, but be sure they're wide enough to give you a 90 percent chance of hitting the correct value.
- Don't research the answers on the internet.
- You must provide an estimate range for each question.
- Spend no more than 10 minutes on this quiz.
So, how good an estimator are you?
|Question||Low Estimate||High Estimate|
|Surface temperature of the sun|
|Latitude of Shanghai|
|Area of the Asian continent|
|The year of Alexander the Great's birth|
|Total value of U.S. currency in circulation in 2004|
|Total volume of the Great Lakes|
|Worldwide box office receipts for the movie Titanic|
|Total length of the coastline of the Pacific Ocean|
|Number of book titles published in the U.S. since 1776|
|Heaviest blue whale ever recorded|
Remember, the purpose of the quiz isn't to determine whether or not you're the next Ken Jennings. It's about estimation, not trivia.
Tomorrow, I'll print the answers along with a deeper explanation of this exercise.