How Good an Estimator Are You?
Chapter 2 of Software Estimation: Demystifying the Black Art opens with a quiz designed to test your estimation abilities. It’s an interesting exercise, so I thought everyone might like to give it a shot.
- For each question, fill in the upper and lower bounds so that you have a 90 percent chance of including the correct value.
- Don’t make your ranges too narrow or too wide, but be sure they’re wide enough to give you a 90 percent chance of hitting the correct value.
- Don’t research the answers on the internet.
- You must provide an estimate range for each question.
- Spend no more than 10 minutes on this quiz.
So, how good an estimator are you?
| Question | Low Estimate | High Estimate |
| Surface temperature of the sun | ||
| Latitude of Shanghai | ||
| Area of the Asian continent | ||
| The year of Alexander the Great's birth | ||
| Total value of U.S. currency in circulation in 2004 | ||
| Total volume of the Great Lakes | ||
| Worldwide box office receipts for the movie Titanic | ||
| Total length of the coastline of the Pacific Ocean | ||
| Number of book titles published in the U.S. since 1776 | ||
| Heaviest blue whale ever recorded |
Remember, the purpose of the quiz isn’t to determine whether or not you’re the next Ken Jennings. It’s about estimation, not trivia.
Tomorrow, I’ll print the answers along with a deeper explanation of this exercise.